As Democrats continue to inflict damage on each other as they battle for their party’s nomination, the media has begun sizing up the general election, especially how various combinations of Democrats would do against Bush in November.

One poll released this week pits Bush against Kerry, concluding that Kerry has a clear advantage at this point in the campaign. Never mind the fact that it’s February and the election is nine months away and a lot can change in that time. The poll also doesn’t factor in who Kerry would pick as a runningmate. Would a Kerry/Edwards ticket be more appealing than a Kerry/Dean or Kerry/Clark or Edwards/Dean pairing? It’s a serious concern that should lead anyone to resist the temptation to give much credibility to polls like this.

However, Bush and Karl Rove must be considering the implications of Kerry becoming the eventual nominee of his party. Rove admitted that his dream would be a Dean nomination because it would make his job so much easier. Kerry poses a much more serious threat. Would Bush and Rove consider removing Cheney from the ticket in order to better position themselves against a strong challenge from the Democrats?

There seem to be two competing but parallel goals for the Bush White House when it comes to the question of keeping Cheney. The first goal, obivously, is to win re-election in November. Bush must choose the single strongest runningmate in order to win enough votes to stay in office. In 2000, Cheney was seen as an asset and has very much remained so during the first term. He knew Washington from his days in the House and on previous GOP cabinets. He also has proven to be a fantastic fundraiser for his party. His influence on policy, both domestic and foreign, has been undeniable. However, in light of the problems of pre-war intelligence failures, questions about corporate misbehavior at home and abroad, and the nagging cry of many Democrats that Cheney has a conflict of interest when it comes to shaping energy policy, it might be time to conclude that in the current political climate Cheney has become a liability.

The real question becomes, does Cheney need to be vice president to have the access and influence needed to counsel Bush and help steer the course of the White House? Obviously, he shouldn’t be demoted to a lesser position like Secretary Defense or State, but could he be retained as a special advisor? Could he be kept on the payroll, with an office in the White House, and the access he would need to the president? If so, why keep him on the ticket?

These questions need to be asked because of the second competing goal that the Bush White House must consider. Beyond 2004, what can Bush do to keep the White House in GOP hands? Reagan successfully passed the torch to the elder George Bush in 1988, ensuring what should have been at least sixteen consecutive years of GOP control, if not more. Now, the younger Bush is positioned to give his party another long stretch in power. To do so, he must carefully consider who he chooses to put on the ticket this time around.

Cheney has said often that he has no ambitions of running for the White House in 2008. He should be believed. Aside from his health problems, the man lacks charisma and the outward dynamism required of modern American presidents. He will certainly be happy to return to the corporate world or the golf course when his time in Washington comes to an end. Therefore, it makes sense that Bush would begin looking for the Republican who can be the heir apparent. Several names seem prominent on that list — Condi Rice, Rudy Guliani, and Bill Frist.

Rice would be the most demographically attractive. Besides being a brilliant scholar and student of foreign policy, she’s a black woman — two groups that Republicans would love to attract more of. It’s conceivable that Rice would maintain the same level of ethos that Cheney currently enjoys but would also appeal to a broader group of voters. Some within the party have already begun the campaign to promote Rice as a viable candidate. It’s obvious that Bush respects her tremendously, and she has thus far avoided the taint of war mis-steps that seem to plague Cheney and others in the cabinet. The downside of Rice is that she doesn’t have any campaign experience, so she’d have to hit the pavement this summer and earn her stripes if she wanted to make a run at the White House in 2008.

Rudy Guliani didn’t make a very convincing candidate for the U.S. Senate when he ran against Hillary in 2000. Then again, that was before 9/11. He proved then that he has what it takes to be a leader. He gained the respect of millions of Americans through his actions during that time of crisis. I’d guess that a Guliani vs. Hillary race today would look a lot different than it did four years ago. A Bush/Guliani ticket would provide a certain geographic balance that would nicely counteract a Kerry/Edwards ticket, if one does materialize. Obviously, Rudy represents a more moderate stripe of Republican than Bush does but that might be a positive as well. He has campaign experience of the grittiest kind, having won the mayoral race in New York City. The downside of Rudy is that he’s been out of the spotlight for a while now. Would voters remember him as a heroic leader? Hard to say. There’s no doubt that he’d help the ticket this year and position himself for a run in 2008.

Lastly, Senate majority leader Bill Frist has quietly risen through the ranks of Senate Republicans in the last several years. He’s smart, polished, and knows how to play the power games of Washington. Just ask Trent Lott. Frist is also a medical doctor, which seems to have become a pedigree popular among voters if Howard Dean’s popularity is to be perceived as accurate. Frist isn’t as geographically or demographically helpful as Rice or Rudy, but he’s got the same types of connections in Washington that Cheney does. He’d be the kind of person that could raise money, make backrooom deal when called on, and serve as a great spokesman for the administration. Of the three, Frist seems to have the greatest political ambition looking ahead to 2008. While no one has publically said anything about their aspirations for 2008, First would seem to the one candidate who would step up and run.

Will Bush shuffle the deck and bump Cheney off the ticket? It’s too soon to tell. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear of Cheney’s worsening health sometime between the Democratic and Republican conventions this summer.