It’s been a very interesting two weeks since the close of the GOP convention. Bush definitely got a bounce from the convention — about 5 percent — but now that bounce has turned into a spike in a lot of places. Taking a look at some key states:

Ohio: Bush 52% Kerry 40%
Pennsylvania: Bush 46% Kerry 42%
Florida: Bush 51% Kerry 45%
Missouri: Bush 55% Kerry 41%
Wisconsin: Bush 52% Kerry 44%

Some nice leads in some important states. Kerry is still leading in Michigan by about 5 points and in New Hampshire by the same margin. He also has slight leads in Iowa, Oregon, Washington and Minnesota.

The big shockers to me are these polls:

New Jersey: Bush 49% Kerry 45%
New York: Kerry 49% Bush 42%
Illinois: Kerry 49% Bush 45%

The fact that Bush is even making it a race in Illinois is amazing. Consider that Alan Keyes’ campaign is seeing his poll numbers sink beneath 40% against Obama. The Illinois GOP is in shambles, but Bush is polling well here. Might we see Illinois flip red on November 2?

New Jersey is a complete shock, as is the tightening race in New York. Bush might take NJ but I don’t have much confidence in NY yet.

The electoral projections look like this:

Election Projection: Bush 285 Kerry 253
Electoral-Vote.com: Bush 311 Kerry 223

With less than 50 days left until the election, Kerry really needs to shake off the taint of the Swift Boat Vets and CBS Memogate. It’s sucking the oxygen out of his campaign. He didn’t perform as well at the DNC as he needed to, so his bounce didn’t materialize. In the meantime, the GOP convention hit all the right buttons, and Bush is enjoying a nice lead. If Kerry is going to win this, he needs to focus on finding a message, especially one that pertains to national security and defense.

The debates could change everything, but if Bush’s performance in 2000 is any indication, then Kerry will be in for a fight.