It’s the beginning of a new year, and it’s a mid-term election year. A third of the Senate and all of the House will up for election in November. In Illinois, it’s also a gubentorial election year, with incumbent Rod Blagojevich likely to face some pretty stiff competition.
I live in the 6th District of Illinois, which has been represented by Rep. Henry Hyde since the beginning of time. Hyde has been in office since 1975, which for the U.S. House is pretty much an eternity. Last year, Hyde announced that he would be retiring at the end of his current term. Now, the 6th District is in the heart of DuPage County — a traditionally staunch GOP stronghold. Hyde would love to keep the seat in the hands of the GOP, and to do so, he endorsed State Sen. Peter Roskam as his hand-picked successor. Roskam is a great guy, actually, who is a conservative much like Hyde. I had the chance to meet and interview Roskam in 2003 and found him to be an intelligent and articulate person.
Now, everyone pegs Roskam’s chances of winning Hyde’s seat as pretty good. The 6th District has been very Republican for a long time, so it’s not a stretch to assume that the GOP faithful will come out in force to support Roskam. However, in 2004, Hyde’s Democratic challenger, Christine Cegelis, garnered 44.2% of the vote. It’s reasonbale to assume that times are changing. It’s very possible that Hyde’s seat may be in play after all.
There are 3 Democrats vying for the nomination — Cegelis, Lindy Scott, and Tammy Duckworth. Cegelis is a businesswoman who has the campaign aparatus in place to be considered the frontrunner. If she can build on her turnout of 2 years ago, she will pose a real challenge to Roskam.
Scott is a professor at Wheaton College. His campaign is banking on a couple of things — attracting evangelicals who might normally vote Republican and attracting Hispanics who are looking for a candidate to back. Scott is a pro-life, evangelical Democrat who opposes the war (and much of what the Bush administration has been doing). He speaks Spanish and is very active in trying to get out the Hispanic vote. He also has been courting evangelicals in Wheaton and Glen Ellyn who probably identify with many of the socially conservative values that he holds but would not otherwise even consider supporting a Democrat. If he can turn out these core groups of his campaign, he might have a chance against Cegelis and could even give Roskam a run for his money in the general election.
Duckworth is something of a gimmick on the part of the Democratic party. She’s an Iraq war veteran who suffered massive injuries because of her service to our country. She has a background in non-profit work with several advanced degrees in political science. She’s a Major in the Illinois National Guard. However, she has no prior political experience and does not even live in the 6th District. Her candidacy is the brainchild of Congressional Democrats looking to support Iraq war veterans as viable candidates for Congress. It’s hard to say whether or not a Duckworth candidacy will gain much traction in the Illinois 6th. She’s got a certain patriotic appeal, but lacks the organization that Cegelis has and the constituency that Scott has.
My take on the race boils down to the gubenetorial race in Illinois, where a host of Republicans are all jockeying for the chance to take on Blagojevich. The leading Republican candidate right now is Judy Baar Topinka, who is a very moderate Republican running with Joe Birkett, who is candidate for Lieutenant Governor and is more conservative. Also in the race are Ron Gidwitz, another moderate who paired himself with a conservative in Steve Rauschenberger. Also in the GOP race are conservative Jim Oberweis, liberal Andy Martin, and reformist Bill Brady.
With the field so crowded for Republicans, it’s not likely that the religious conservatives that Scott needs to turn out will pull Democratic ballots. The same situation may hurt Duckworth, who has to be counting on some pro-military votes to cross the line from the GOP and support her. I think a Lindy Scott candidacy would pose an interesting challenge for Peter Roskam and would make for some enjoyable debates leading up to the general election. However, as of now, it looks like Cegelis has the best chance of challenging Roskam come November.
