I know it’s late April, and the Democrats haven’t even picked a candidate yet … but since the AP has released their analysis of the electoral map, I figured it was my turn to take a whack at it.

The AP’s analysis is pretty weak. They break it down into “Likely GOP,” “Likely Dem,” “Battleground,” and “Wild Card.” They are operating as if Obama and Clinton are each equally as likely to be the nominee. For that reason, they put a lot of states into the wild card column that won’t be there once Obama sews the nomination up. I quickly split those up among the two candidates.

After running the likely GOP and likely Dem numbers, by my math, I’ve got McCain 189, Obama 184, with 165 in battleground states.

Of those battleground states, I think New Mexico and Nevada go to McCain, as does Florida, Virginia, and New Hampshire, for a total of 242 − 28 shy of victory.

Obama picks up battleground votes in Minnesota, Oregon, and Wisconsin, for a total of 211 — 59 short of victory.

This means that if McCain wins Ohio (as Bush did in 2000 and 2004) and Missouri (which Bush won in 2000 and 2004) then he’ll pick up 31 votes and win the presidency. That would mean Obama can win all the other battleground states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Iowa — and still not win.

Now, this is contingent upon McCain winning in Virginia and Florida, which might not be easy.

It also means that Obama really needs to win Pennsylvania, which may be tough after the self-inflicted damage he’s suffered in the recent primary fight, and must win Ohio, Michigan, and try to win in Colorado which will be a dogfight.

At this point, the map looks to favor McCain, if he faces Obama in the general election. As of today, I’ve got McCain at 273 in a worst case scenario.