So Barack Obama was in Oregon this weekend, and he attracted an estimated crowd of 75,000.

That’s impressive. How impressive? Well, some argue that the crowd that showed up represents 5% of the registered voters in Oregon.

I’m trying to source that stat. From the best I can tell, the number of registered voters in Oregon, as of November 2006 is just shy of 2 million. The monthly data for April 2008 from the Oregon Secretary of State’s Election Division puts the number at just over 2 million [PDF].

Let’s take 2 million as a nice round number. What is 5% of 2 million? That would be 100,000.

The crowd size has been estimated by various sources as being anywhere from 72,000 (attributed to the Portland Fire Bureau) to 80,000 (attributed to just “fire officials”). Regardless, let’s call it 75,000.

That number would only represent 3.75% of the registered voters in Oregon. It’s still an impressive number, but if we’re going to fall all over ourselves, let’s make sure we get our numbers straight.

The lesson that the GOP and John McCain ought to learn from this display of support is simply that Oregon probably isn’t going to turn red in November. Perhaps it’s better to spend time in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, and Wisconsin than in Oregon.