I was tipped off (via) to a great website called FiveThirtyEight.com run by Nate Silver. The site’s name refers to the total number of electoral votes in the U.S. presidential election. It’s a great site for analyzing polling data and crunching numbers.

We’re just about to a point in this campaign when the general election polling data will mean something. Once Clinton drops out of the race, if she indeed takes that step, then the Obama vs. McCain match-up will come into greater clarity. All of the national head-to-head polls up to this point have been somewhat meaningless for two reasons. First, the general election isn’t a straight popular vote contest. The Electoral College remains the mechanism for choosing the president. Second, as long as Clinton has remained a part of the campaign, it’s impossible to get an accurate read on how well Obama will do as the nominee versus John McCain.

With all of the said, as of today, FiveThirtyEight has McCain edging out Obama by a margin of 270.6 to 267.4. I’m a little more confident in McCain’s ability to top Obama, but I think this analysis is pretty sound. There are a relatively small handful of states that will be critical battlegrounds for both candidates. These include Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and to a lesser extent, Virginia, Indiana, and Colorado.

Once the Democratic primary season ends next week, things may begin to become clearer. The next big step will be for the VP process to work itself out.